Canadian Deal-Making in a New Trump Era: Strategic Considerations for 2025Posted on June 17, 2025

1. Immigration and Labour Shortages May Benefit Canadian Businesses

The United States has started enforcing stricter immigration policies, including stronger deportation efforts and tighter restrictions on legal migration. These changes are already leading to worker shortages in sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and healthcare. For Canadian businesses operating in these same industries, this shift could present a competitive advantage. Companies in Canada may be seen as more stable and resilient, which can be appealing to investors looking to reduce risk related to US labour conditions.

2. Trade Policy Risks Heighten for Canadian Exporters

In February 2025, the Trump administration introduced a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico under an emergency order. Although President Trump later expressed optimism about reaching a trade agreement with Canada, including remarks at the G7 summit, the overall environment remains uncertain. These new tariffs have raised average US import rates significantly, putting pressure on Canadian exporters in industries like aluminum, steel, and softwood lumber. For companies that rely heavily on the US market, it may be necessary to reconsider their supply chain strategy by either shifting some operations into the United States or expanding into other global markets.

3. Climate Policy Shifts Could Slow Down Clean Energy Momentum

Recent US legislation has shortened the timeline for clean energy tax credits, which were previously expanded through the Inflation Reduction Act. This shift may reduce support for electric vehicles, battery technology, and renewable infrastructure. Canadian firms that depend on demand from the US market may see investment interest drop. On the other hand, companies focused on domestic or European growth may be better positioned to endure the change and keep expanding.

4. Energy and Resource Sectors Could Regain Investor Confidence

As environmental regulations are rolled back in the US, the oil and gas sector is seeing a resurgence in activity. This trend could lead to new cross-border energy projects and greater collaboration with Canadian producers. Companies involved in pipelines, fossil fuel logistics, and engineering services may experience a boost in investor interest, especially if they align with American energy priorities.

5. Canada May Face Pressure to Boost Defence and Resource Autonomy

With the US shifting toward a more inward-focused foreign policy, NATO allies like Canada are being asked to contribute more to collective defence efforts. In response, Canada is likely to increase its defence budget and invest in building stronger domestic supply chains. The demand for critical minerals is also growing, particularly for sectors like aerospace, cybersecurity, and advanced manufacturing. Canadian companies working in these industries could become attractive partners or acquisition targets.

6. Tax and Regulatory Uncertainty Will Influence Investment Strategy

President Trump has proposed extending corporate tax cuts and reducing regulatory burdens for American manufacturers. However, high national debt and political division make it hard to predict how many of these plans will move forward. For Canadian companies, this is a moment to stay alert. Keeping a close watch on US developments while continuing to present Canada as a reliable and forward-looking business environment will be key to attracting long-term investment.

The return of Donald Trump is already influencing US policies across key sectors. These changes are beginning to affect Canadian businesses and deal-making activity in meaningful ways. In this evolving environment, companies that can stay flexible, adapt to new realities, and move quickly will have the advantage. Whether it’s through attracting investors, entering new markets, or forming strategic partnerships, the ability to respond confidently will set successful companies apart in 2025.